Swedish politics: the end of an era

In a week Sweden head to the polls to elect our new government. And for the first time in a long time – probably the first time since I got old enough to care about politics – I’m actually nervous about the outcome. Sweden, arguably, has never had it so good: it has relatively low unemployment, its wealth-per-person is above the EU average and it’s among the ten happiest countries in the world. Yet the general election on the 9th of September is one of Sweden’s biggest political tests in decades.

The main factor is the rise in support for anti-immigration party Sweden Democrats, led by Jimmy Åkesson. Opinion polls suggest the far-right party could double its vote share from four years ago (13%), which then made it the country’s third-largest party. Some polls put the party – who recently backed a referendum on EU membership (“Swexit”) – in first place, others in second – but all suggest it will do far better than the last election.

This could have dramatic consequences. Although Åkesson is likely to be the opposition, he may also end up as the powerbroker of the Swedish government. This means that if the country’s traditional bloc divide between the left and right stays, no new prime minister can be appointed without his support. It would also force whoever forms the next government to adopt a more hardline immigration stance.

The rise of the nationalist party has come alongside a collapse in support for the traditional parties. Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats were once dominant, governing for more than 60 years of the 20th century and averaging 45% of the vote. They are now on course for their worst result for more than a century (a recent poll put them on just 22%). Meanwhile, the centre-right opposition who governed from 2006 to 2014 – a four-party alliance led by the Moderate Party (on 17%) – isn’t doing better.

None of this was supposed to happen in Sweden, a country that I always speak proudly of and is viewed around the world as being calm and collected. The Sweden Democrats have been called neo-fascist, far-right, racist and xenophobic – yet nothing has halted their rise. Formed in 1988 with roots in the neo-Nazi movement, an early slogan was “to keep Sweden Swedish”. MP Björn Söder, a leading member of the party, recently suggested that Jews and Sami people were not true Swedes.

It was the European refugee crisis that gave the Sweden Democrats their first boost. Three years ago Sweden had 162,000 people applying for asylum, 35,000 of whom were unaccompanied children. The government’s aim was to make Sweden a ‘humanitarian super-power’ and no other party objected to the open-door policy. Given that the other parties were united against Åkesson and his crew, it was pretty easy for them to win new supporters. For anyone who felt Sweden was accepting too many migrants, there was only one party that agreed with them.

But as the migrant influx led Sweden’s asylum applications per capita to amount to the second highest in the EU and local authorities struggled to cope with the large numbers, the government made a dramatic U-turn, put up temporary border checks and tightened rules for future arrivals.

Today the Sweden Democrats are still framing the immigration debate, and force the other parties to toughen their tone. Cutting high unemployment levels and subsequent welfare payments to the foreign-born population is now at the centre of the Moderate Party’s current campaign, alongside a promise to tackle the rising numbers of shootings in the troubled suburbs where many immigrants live. On the centre-left, the Social Democrats have pledged to continue to slash refugee numbers and argue that Swedish lessons should become compulsory for foreigners seeking to claim benefits.

It is clear that a shift has taken place. Immigration has always been taboo in the politically correct Sweden – nuanced debates about policy just didn’t take place. The discussion only began when things started to get out of control at the height of the refugee crisis, and the Sweden Democrats were free to own the issue from the beginning. The party has since played to people’s fears and blamed immigrants and multiculturalism for many of the country’s present problems. Immigrants are now the scapegoats for our apparently decreasing security and stolen culture. The Sweden Democrats have also become a solution for any voter who is against the establishment.

The party’s rise makes me incredibly sad to see. Having lived abroad for the past four years, I always say that Sweden is an open country where everyone’s accepted. Depending on how this election pans out, I’m not so sure anymore. This is not the Sweden I grew up in.